This is the first season for the Pitcher DNA projections (at least publicly). This system can generate pretty data visualizations, but those will be hollow unless it can make some good predictions too.

To that end, it’s time to put some stakes in the ground and talk about some pitchers that are underrated or overrated as compared with other projection systems.

The only caveat I want to put on the record is that this system isn’t designed for season-long projections. It is more of a micro-projection system, looking at recent history and projecting near-term performance. For more details about how the system works, check out the explainer here and some FAQs about the projections here.

That being said, what good is a projection system if it can’t find some sleepers and busts for draft season? We have some good ones to talk about.

Sleepers

Christian Javier

Where most projections see Javier with a mid-4’s ERA, Pitcher DNA has him at 4.01 and a candidate to strike out 200.

Javier’s fastball has an elite combination of high swinging strike rates and low ball-in-play rates.

That pitch alone can take him far, but he can reach another level with a little more control and a secondary pitch that can also get whiffs.

An ace waiting to happen.

Nick Pivetta

Pivetta is a great example of how Pitcher DNA works as compared with other projection systems (for better or for worse). He has had some rough seasons in his career, with ERAs in the 5s and even 6s. However, last season he seemed to put it together for the first time.

Many projection systems weigh several years of data in their models, but Pitcher DNA only looks at the last 200 pitches per pitch bucket. Though that lens, Pivetta is legit.

Pivetta gets excellent swinging strike rates on his fastball, while maintaining good control. Hard contact is an issue, which is why he has a 20th percentile projection of 120.

His median projection is above average, but this current level might be his upside — Pivetta’s 80th percentile projection is about the same as his median one. This means he’s not likely to take another step forward, but even if he repeats 2023, he’s underrated.

Keaton Winn

Here’s a sleeper that few are talking about. Pitcher DNA loves Keaton Winn. He has been slowed down in spring by an elbow injury, but looks like he’s on track to start the season in the majors.

In his 42 innings in 2023, Winn showed some exciting skills that were hidden behind a 4.68 ERA. In particular, he has excellent control of his offspeed pitch, which he throws 55% of the time. His fastball has life as well, generating good swinging strike numbers against lefties.

And don’t bother looking too deep into the data on his breaking pitch, he only threw it 3% of the time.

Pitcher DNA has him projected for a 3.09 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, and his current ADP is in the 400’s. Potential steal if the playing time is there and the skills hold up.

Bailey Ober

Bailey Ober has already broken out, but it seems like many people haven’t bought it yet. He had a 3.43 ERA in 2023 and 3.21 in 2022 (in only 56 innings), yet he is currently being drafted behind the Mitch Keller’s of the world, and most projection systems have his ERA regressing by more than a run.

This is the Pitcher DNA of a solid, sub-4 ERA starter. He generates excellent swinging strike rates on his fastball, especially against righties. His offspeed has world-class control (although when it gets hit, it gets hit hard).

His 80th percentile projection isn’t much better than his median, so it’s unlikely that he takes another step forward, but Ober’s 2023 numbers aren’t a fluke. Draft with confidence.

DL Hall

It is unclear how many innings Hall will get for the Brewers, but playing time might be the only thing holding him back from a breakout season.

Hall’s fastball is already elite, with +3 swinging strikes against both hands. He compliments that with outstanding control on his secondary pitches — look at the called strikes (+8) and called balls (-8) on his righty breaking pitches.

Hard contact might become an issue, but if he can keep that under control, his skills suggest an 85 wRC+ against, with upside in the 70’s. Ace-level stuff.

Busts

Zac Gallen

Gallen is currently being taken as the 9th pitcher off the board, but Pitcher DNA sees some red flags.

Gallen’s secondary pitches generate excellent swinging strike rates. In particular, his offspeed has outstanding control and swing-and-miss action.

The issue is Gallen’s fastball — it has below average swinging strike rates against both hands, questionable control against righties, and above average hard hit rates against lefties.

it is possible to be an ace without a great fastball, but the degree of difficulty is high. His median projection is 15% below average, and his 20th percentile downside projection is over the Big Papi line.

Gallen has shown better skills than these in his career, but to ignore his most recent on-field performance would be a mistake. Proceed with caution.

Brayan Bello

Bello isn’t being drafted extremely high, but he just signed a new six-year contract with the Red Sox which may trick some fantasy players into buying in. Pitcher DNA says you should stay away.

Let’s start with his fastball. Below average swinging strikes against both hands. Completely average control and above average balls in play. Nothing terribly concerning, but nothing to fall in love with either.

On his secondary pitches, Bello struggles with control on his breaking stuff. He is able to generate good swing-and-miss action with his offspeed against righties, but that is basically the only real strength in his arsenal.

Putting it all together, Pitcher DNA sees a below average median projection. Worth drafting depending on the league type, but only as a last round/$1 type of investment.

Mitch Keller

Keller currently has an ADP in the mid-100’s and has some sleeper buzz after a solid 2023 season which landed him a new contract with the Pirates. Pitcher DNA isn’t a fan.

As I said on Threads, there just isn’t much to love about Keller’s skillset. He does not generate above average swinging strikes anywhere. His secondary pitches are far below average in terms of whiffs.

Control is an issue with his breaking ball, which on its own is not a problem, but typically, the lack of control is a tradeoff a pitcher might make to get more swings and misses. In Keller’s case, it’s neither.

His median projection is right around average, so its not as if he is undraftable, but this has all the makings for a disappointing season, and it’s not like the Pirates will be able to bail him out with cheap wins.

Max Fried

Fried is currently being taken as a top-20 starter, top-50 player overall. He’s had some excellent seasons and is on a great team, but looking at the raw ingredients through the eyes of Pitcher DNA, he profiles as a league average pitcher.

There are some bright spots here. His offspeed against lefties is tremendous — great control, great swinging strikes. His breaking ball against righties is very solid and gets good called strikes, if not swinging ones.

The overall issue is that he’s just too hittable. He gives up above average balls-in-play on fastballs against both hands. Soft balls in play can be an asset, but it puts your fate in the hands of the defense.

Not a bad pitcher by any stretch, but not worth the top-50 investment, and has a 20th percentile projection that could spell disaster.

Framber Valdez

This may be the toughest call of the draft season. How you will value Valdez this year will entirely depend on how much you weight recent performance against historical performance.

Valdez has been an underrated ace for the past three years — as steady as they come. However, he struggled at the end of 2023.

Most projection systems look at multiple years of performance, and thus are still high on Valdez going into 2024. He is currently a top-20 starter in ADP.

For better or worse, Pitcher DNA exclusively looks at a pitcher’s last 200 pitches per bucket. It does not paint a picture of an ace.

Valdez has a concerning fastball — below average swinging strikes against both hands. His fastball still has elite control against lefties, but below average against righties.

His breaking balls are able to generate good swinging strikes, but at the expense of below-average control.

Valdez’s offspeed has outstanding control, but is hittable against righties, and is too easy to foul off against lefties — which means it can’t put them away.

Seems like is 2024 will go one of two directions for Valdez — either his end-of-season performance was a blip and with a restful offseason he’ll return to form, or this is the end of his run as a high-tier fantasy asset.

With where he is currently being drafted, I wouldn’t take the risk.