This is the first (public) year for Batter DNA, so it’s time to call some shots that will either make the system look great or stupid.

The only caveat I want to put on the record is that this system isn’t designed for season-long projections. It is more of a micro-projection system, looking at recent history and projecting near-term performance. For more details about how the system works, check out the explainer here and some FAQs about the projections here.

Sleepers

Kyle Tucker

I get it, it’s hard to say that a player with a Top-10 ADP is a sleeper. Yet, I had to highlight Tucker because he has the highest median wRC+ projection (143) of any hitter in the league.

Tucker does everything well. Look at the called strike numbers — you can’t get a called strike on the guy. This type of swing-first profile usually comes paired either with high power or high contact, but rarely both. Tucker is an exception.

The only gap I can really find is offspeed pitches against righties, where he has a little trouble putting it in play, instead he fouls them off.

Tucker has a median projection over the Big Papi line. And — oh yeah — he also steals bases. Ronald Acuna is the clear top dog, but I think Tucker could be the second best fantasy hitter this year.

Ozzie Albies

Another early ADP guy, but I can’t resist highlighting this outstanding hitter. Batter DNA loves him.

Albies has a median projection at the Big Papi line, and his 80th percentile projection is so high (173) that I had to extend the x-axis on the graph.

Most projection systems have Albies regressing a bit from his excellent 2023 season, but Batter DNA sees the potential for another level.

Side note: this is one of the fun elements of the “micro-projection” philosophy — averaging the past few seasons to project next season will never produce a projection outside of the min and max of those seasons.

Albies’ power is very real. His +1.7 against lefty fastballs is world class. He hits righties slightly worse, but nothing concerning.

Albies does swing and miss, but if he can make a few tweaks without sacrificing power, he could hit that 80th percentile projection and be an MVP candidate.

Willy Adames

Most projections have Adames as about league average. His current ADP is pushing 200. Batter DNA sees significant upside.

Adames crushes lefty fastballs and lefty offspeed pitches. He has some swinging strike gaps, but his eye is good, especially against lefty breaking balls and righty offspeed.

Batter DNA sees a median wRC+ in the 130s, and he’s another guy I had to extend my x-axis to fit in his 80th percentile projection.

Alejandro Kirk

Everyone knows that Kirk’s breakout potential is tied to his playing time, but Batter DNA sees a hitter that will be impossible to leave on the bench for long, even with a crowded catcher/DH situation in Toronto.

Kirk has great swinging strike numbers against all pitch types and both hands. Often, the high-contact profile means the batter isn’t hitting the ball hard (think Luis Arraez), but in Kirk’s case, he has outstanding hard ball-in-play rates too, especially against righty fastballs, righty offspeed, and lefty breaking pitches.

This Batter DNA screams high ceiling, high floor. He’ll grab full time at bats early in the season and never let go.

Gabriel Moreno

Moreno is another catcher that Batter DNA loves. While most projection systems have him around a 100 wRC+, Batter DNA thinks that’s his floor.

Moreno takes a patient approach against fastballs — high called strikes, high called balls. In 2023, his strikeout and walk rates were 20% and 8%. Batter DNA projects 14% and 10% going forward, which sets a very high floor.

There isn’t much power here, but catchers tend to add power as their careers progress, so if he can add a little more pop, he could be a steal.

Busts

Cedric Mullins

Mullins was a fantasy darling in 2021, but the skills have eroded quickly. His ADP is in the 130’s, but don’t pay for past production.

Mullins still has great swinging strike rates against fastballs, but the power is totally gone.

The 80th percentile projection shows that Mullins can still get back to 2021 if he starts hitting the ball hard again, but the median projection is the worst for any batter projected to get over 500 plate appearances.

In Baltimore’s increasingly crowded outfield, his playing time could be at risk if he starts slowly.

Teoscar Hernandez

Hernandez is currently being drafted right around pick 100, but Batter DNA sees red flags that should keep him off your roster.

Hernandez has one big problem — swinging strikes against breaking pitches — and one bigger problem — swinging strikes against offspeed pitches.

He still has very good power against lefties, and I would expect the Dodgers to maximize that skill. That being said, it’s tough to take a player at Pick 100 who has a median wRC+ projection of 79.

Jose Altuve

Altuve has an ADP in the 30’s, and it’s not hard to see why — his wRC+ has been 150+ for the last two seasons. This might be the player that has the biggest gap between the annual projection systems and Batter DNA.

Altuve still hits fastballs extremely well. Against righty fastballs, he rarely swings and misses and has a good eye. Against lefty ones, his eye and contact rates are worse, but his +1.1 hard ball in play rate is elite.

The issue is secondary pitches. He does not hit any secondary pitches hard, and although the swinging strike rates are still good, he has below average called ball rates against both hands.

Batter DNA sees a below average wRC+, which might turn out to be wrong, but is concerning enough to pick someone else at that 30-40 range.

Ha-Seong Kim

Kim was one of the best breakout stories of 2023. How you project him going into 2024 depends entirely on how much you weigh recent performance.

Kim was outstanding for most of the season, but he did not look like the same guy late in 2023.

Batter DNA exclusively looks at the last 200 pitches per bucket (fastball, breaking, offspeed, against righties and lefties). This is by design, in order to give a “right now” look at a player’s skills.

Kim’s contact rates still look good, but the power is gone. This is especially concerning against righty fastballs (-1.6) as that’s the most common pitch he’ll face.

I personally hope to see Kim come out in April, look like the the hitter we saw early in 2023, and make this call seem short sighted. If that happens, the good news is that Batter DNA will adjust quickly (you’ll be able to see his projections change in-season on the projection page!), but for now, it’s best to pass.